Mortgage Market Weekly – Update August 10, 2015

In This Issue…

Last Week in Review: July’s Jobs Report showed continued signs of improvement.

Forecast for the Week: Thursday’s Retail Sales report will be the closely watched release on a light economic calendar.

View: Wrap up your summer with a reading list to boost morale and motivate you to take on the rest of the year.

Last Week in Review

“Working 9 to 5. What a way to make a living.” Dolly Parton. A heavy economic calendar culminated the week with July’s Jobs Report singing of work for many Americans. The housing market showed strong gains as well.

housing-price-index_2015-06-22Employers added 215,000 new jobs in July, while the figures for May and June were revised higher by a total of 13,000 jobs. Retail, health care and leisure led the pack with job opportunities. The unemployment rate held on to its seven-year low, which is also good news. While the average workweek increased, growth rate of wages remains at the lowest levels on record.

Home prices jumped in June. Research firm CoreLogic reported that home prices rose 6.5 percent, marking the 40th consecutive month of year-over-year gains. While prices are still down from the peak in April 2006, they are expected to continue to rise. CoreLogic cited pent-up demand, affordability and a more robust labor market for the gains.

Data continues to show that the job market, housing sector and economy overall are improving, even though inflation remains below the Fed’s 2 percent target. The big question now is whether or not our economy has improved enough for the Federal Reserve to begin raising its benchmark Fed Funds Rate (the rate banks use to lend each other money overnight). September’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting provides the next opportunity to see what the Fed will do.

For now, home loan rates remain near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all about the mortgage market, housing or home loan rates for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

This week’s economic calendar is light, though the second half of the week features several key reports.

  • Tuesday kicks off with data from second quarter Productivity.
  • Jump ahead to Thursday with weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the closely watched Retail Sales report.
  • On Friday, the Consumer Sentiment and the Producer Price Indexes will be released.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving; and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds improved throughout the latter part of July. Home loan rates remain near historic lows.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Aug 07, 2015):

mtgbonds_2015-08-02

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Summer of Success Reading List

If you’re looking for a few great titles to wrap up your summer reading, look no further than these top picks from Amazon’s Best Seller list! These great reads will boost your morale and motivate you to take on the rest of the year.

Getting to Yes with Yourself (and Other Worthy Opponents) is the highly anticipated follow up to “Getting to Yes: Negotiation Agreement Without Giving In.” Harvard University professor and negotiation expert William Ury addresses one of the most common obstacles to achieving goals: negative self-talk.

StrengthsFinder 2.0 asks if you have the opportunity to do what you do best every day. For many, natural talents go untapped. Instead, people devote more time to fixing perceived shortcomings than to developing and using strengths. This book reveals how to change the pattern.

The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying Up: The Japanese Art of Decluttering and Organizing shares the secrets of the most popular organization consultant in Tokyo. Disorganization contributes to problems in both business and life. But author Marie Kondo (whose consultancy has a three-month waiting list) promises if you organize your home or office just once—and do it properly—you’ll never have to do it again, and you’ll see positive results.

The Achievement Habit: Stop Wishing, Start Doing, and Take Command of Your Life written by the co-founder of Stanford’s d.School, Bernard Roth, shares thinking insights gained from solving large-scale design projects. Gain confidence, overcome obstacles that keep you from your potential, and learn to think more creatively from one of the masters of applied creative thought.

As always, feel free to pass these helpful tips along to your team, your clients and colleagues!

econ-cal-2015-08-08_0-48-45

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

Don Parsons
Commerce Home Mortgage – NMLS 2105
450 Newport Center Drive Suite 480
Newport Beach, CA 92660
2130 Main Street Suite 260
Huntington Beach, CA 92648