Mortgage Market Weekly – Update Dec 10, 2014

In This Issue…

Last Week in Review: Job growth in November came in far above expectations. How did the markets and home loan rates react?

Forecast for the Week: The second half of the week heats up with news on wholesale inflation, jobless claims, consumer spending and consumer sentiment.

View: Find out why HARD Goals can be the secret to getting from where you are to where you want to be.

Last Week in Review

“Start me up.” The Rolling Stones. The labor sector has kicked into high gear, with job growth in November far exceeding expectations.

corelogic-home-price-index-dec08The November Jobs Report showed that 321,000 jobs were created, far above the 230,000 expected. In addition, 44,000 jobs were added to September’s and October’s figures. This report marks the tenth straight month of 200,000 plus job growth, which is the longest stretch since 1994.

Another positive in the report is that the Unemployment Rate held steady at 5.8 percent. However, there is one thing to watch in future months: Hourly Earnings came in double expectations. If future months show this is the start of a trend, inflation talk could heat up. Remember that inflation is bad for Bonds, as it reduces the value of fixed investments like Bonds. This means inflation can also cause home loan rates to worsen, as they are tied to Mortgage Bonds. But the main takeaway is that the labor market and overall economy continue to improve, and these improvements should provide a boost to the housing market.

Speaking of housing, research firm CoreLogic reported that home prices (including distressed sales) rose by 6.1 percent from October 2013 to October 2014. This is up from the 5.6 percent annual gain recorded in September, halting a seven-month slowdown. Home price gains are at more normal levels now, after the double digit gains seen earlier in the year.

Even though the strong Jobs Report caused volatility in the markets, home loan rates remain near some of their best levels of the year, and now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

Economic reports don’t begin until Thursday, with the end of the week bringing key reports.

  • On Thursday, look for Weekly Initial Jobless Claims as well as November’s Retail Sales.
  • On Friday, the Producer Price Index will reveal if there are inflation pressures at the wholesale level.
  • Also on Friday, the Consumer Sentiment Index for December will be released.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further – a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds declined in recent days but home loan rates remain near 18-month lows.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Dec 05, 2014)

dec08-bonds-chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Are Your Goals Too Easy?

Mark Murphy, author of “HARD Goals: The Secret to Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be,” says getting from where you are to where you want to be in your career, business and life is more about attempting a difficult target – even if you miss – than attempting an easy target and succeeding.

“An appropriately difficult goal is going to require you to learn,” Murphy says. “It’s going to stretch your brain, excite some neurons, amp you up and awaken your senses.”

Murphy’s leadership training consultancy studied nearly 5,000 workers across a wide field of businesses, and what he discovered is that HARD Goals engage the brain in a way that is totally different from the goals most people set. What’s a HARD Goal? The acronym stands for:

  • Heartfelt: You’re emotionally attached to it.
  • Animated: You’ve got a vision of its accomplishment.
  • Required: You feel such a sense of urgency that you must act now.
  • Difficult: You must be challenged by it.

According to Murphy’s research, people with HARD Goals are up to 75 percent more fulfilled than people with easy ones. But how can you know if the goal you’ve set is too hard—or too easy? Take each of your goals and measure them against your comfort zone. You will notice there are five possibilities:

  1. The goal is totally within your comfort zone, and feels easy.
  2. The goal is “pretty much” within your comfort zone, but not exciting.
  3. The goal is a little outside your comfort zone, and makes you nervous.
  4. The goal is definitely outside your comfort zone, and makes you uncomfortable.
  5. The goal is way outside your comfort zone, and causes anxiety.

While No. 1 Goals are probably only items on your daily to-do list, and No. 5 Goals are probably those you aren’t meant to achieve, it’s the No. 4 Goals you should pay the most attention to. Goals that take you into uncharted territory but don’t leave you paralyzed by anxiety are the ones that will give you the most challenge and satisfaction.

Try this simple analysis of your goals and see!

Please feel free to pass these great goal-setting tips along to your team, clients and colleagues!

Source: SUCCESS Magazine, Amazon.com

econ-calendar-2014-12

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

Don Parsons
Commerce Mortgage – NMLS 2105
450 Newport Center Drive Suite 350
Newport Beach, CA 92660
2130 Main Street Suite 260
Huntington Beach, CA 92648