Mortgage Market Weekly – Update Mar 9, 2015

In This Issue…

Last Week in Review: February’s Jobs Report was better than expected, while home price gains are at sustainable levels.

Forecast for the Week: Look for news on wholesale inflation, consumer sentiment and retail sales.

View: Spring clean your office space with these easy tips. [Read more…]

Mortgage Market Weekly – Update Dec 22, 2014

In This Issue…

Last Week in Review: While lower oil prices are giving people reason to cheer, there was some disappointing news in the housing sector.

Forecast for the Week: A full slate of economic reports will be released ahead of the Christmas holiday.

View: Saying “no” can be easy with these five tips.

Last Week in Review

“You make me wanna (Shout!)” These days, many people are shouting for joy as gas prices continue to plunge. But was the rest of the week’s news cause to celebrate? Read on for details.

consumer-price-index_2014-12-19Falling gas prices were definitely a key factor leading consumer prices lower in November, as the Consumer Price Index fell by 0.3 percent. The inflation-reading gauge posted its largest monthly decline in six years. Low inflation is good news for Bonds, as inflation reduces the value of fixed investments like Bonds. This means low inflation is also good news for home loan rates, which are tied to Mortgage Bonds.

Over in the housing sector, November Housing Starts fell by 1.6 percent from October to an annual rate of 1.028 million units. Single-family starts fell 5.4 percent, while the volatile multi-family segment rose by 6.7 percent. Building Permits in November also declined. Despite these decreases, the housing sector has been improving overall. In addition, the recent strong Jobs Report for November is a good sign for economic growth next year—and that should help the housing sector continue its otherwise improving trend.

Also of significance: The Fed held its last Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2014, and it noted that it will keep the Fed Funds Rate (the rate banks use to lend money to each other overnight) low until it feels that the economy can function normally with higher rates. This led to a rally in Stocks, while Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates remain near 18-month bests.

The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near some of their best levels of the year, and now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

The first half of the week will be busy, with key reports on housing, inflation and economic growth.

  • In the housing sector, Existing Home Sales for November will be released on Monday. November New Home Sales follow on Tuesday.
  • The final reading on third quarter Gross Domestic Product will be closely watched when the numbers are delivered on Tuesday.
  • Tuesday also brings several more key reports, including the Consumer Sentiment Index, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income, Personal Spending and Personal Consumption Expenditures (the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation).
  • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Wednesday instead of Thursday due to the Christmas holiday.

The Stock markets will close early at 1:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday, December 24, while the Bond markets will be closing at 2:00 p.m. EST. All markets will be closed on Thursday, December 25 in observance of Christmas. On Friday, December 26 there will be normal market hours.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds remain near 18-month highs, meaning home loan rates are still hovering near historic lows.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Dec 19, 2014)

mortgage-bonds_2014-12-19

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

5 Ways to Say No

The holidays aren’t the only time of year people over-commit themselves and being able to say no isn’t always easy. But there are ways to say no that make all the difference, and can help you preserve both your sanity and your relationships.

Christine Carter, Ph.D., sociologist, happiness expert at UC Berkeley’s Greater Good Science Center, and author of “The Sweet Spot: How to Find Your Groove at Home and Work” (coming January 2015) offers five effective ways to say no:

  1. Vague but effective: “Thank you for asking, but that isn’t going to work out for me.”
  2. Ask me later: “I want to do that, but I’m not available until April. Will you ask me gain then?”
  3. Keep trying: “None of those dates work for me, but I would love to see you. Send me some more dates.”
  4. Try me last minute: “I can’t put anything else on my calendar this month, but I’d love to do that with you sometime. Will you call me right before you go again?”
  5. Gratitude: “Thank you so much for your enthusiasm and support! I’m sorry I’m not able to help you at this time.”

If you’d like to find out even more effective ways you can say no, read Carter’s full article 21 Ways to “Give Good No.”

Please feel free to pass these great tips along to your team, clients and colleagues!

Source: Greater Good Science Center

econ-calendar=2015-02-17_16-19-12

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: don@donparsons.com

If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:

Don Parsons
Commerce Mortgage – NMLS 2105
450 Newport Center Drive Suite 350
Newport Beach, CA 92660
2130 Main Street Suite 260
Huntington Beach, CA 92648

Mortgage Market Weekly – Update Nov 10, 2014

In This Issue…

Last Week in Review: The October Jobs Report was mixed, while housing price gains continue to move lower after the highs seen in 2013.

Forecast for the Week: With a quiet economic report calendar ahead, the Stock and Bond markets may play off of each other for direction.

View: Want to make LinkedIn a more effective resource for your business? Check out the tips below.

Last Week in Review

“Every day you may make progress.” Winston Churchill. The labor market has made great strides this year, as the economy has averaged 229,000 new jobs per month in 2014, the fastest pace since 1999. However, key details in the latest report show more progress is needed.

corelogic-home-price-index-nov10The October Jobs Report showed that 214,000 jobs were created, below the 235,000 expected. Of importance to note: a big percentage of the gains were concentrated in retailers, restaurants and bar,  all of which typically increase ahead of the holidays.

On the surface, there was good news as the Unemployment Rate fell to 5.8 percent from 5.9 percent, reaching its lowest rate since July 2008. However, wage growth remains tepid, as hourly earnings rose by only 3 cents, with the year-over-year increase at just 2 percent. And the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) came in at 62.8 percent, still near the lows last seen in 1978. The LFPR measures the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, and it should be moving higher in a recovery.

In housing news, research firm CoreLogic reported that home prices, including distressed sales, rose at an annual pace of 5.6 percent in September. This was the slowest annual rate since August 2012, and well below the 11.8 percent gain recorded this past February. Housing price gains are definitely trending lower after their meteoric highs last year.

The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near some of their best levels of the year, and now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

The economic calendar is quiet this week, but the second half of the week features several key reports.

  • Economic news doesn’t begin until Thursday with Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which have been below 300,000 for eight straight weeks.
  • On Friday, Retail Sales will be released along with the Consumer Sentiment Index.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds improved after the October Jobs Report was released. Home loan rates remain near historic lows and I will continue to monitor their movement.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Nov 07, 2014)

nov10-bonds-chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Why Are You Using LinkedIn?

By David Ackert, AckertAdvisory.com

Being on LinkedIn is all well and good, but unless you know why, you can easily get stuck in an unproductive web of meaningless connections.

For your consideration, here are four LinkedIn goals, along with recommendations on how to achieve them:

  1. Target: LinkedIn is a great way to target potential prospects and allies. Given that targeting relies on introductions from your existing connections, make sure you only accept invitations from people who know you well enough to broker an introduction for you. Targeting someone who’s not in your network? Consider upgrading to a Business Premium or Sales Navigator account.
  2. Attract: If you have a unique practice or specialty that is likely to be sought out, you don’t have to limit your connections in the way a “targeter” would. Accept invitations from anyone who could have access to relevant business opportunities. Join groups that align with your areas of interest and expertise. Statistically, participation in groups is at least three times more likely to drive relevant traffic to your profile.
  3. Broadcast: Trying to make a name for yourself? Connect with anyone whose opinion matters to you. Post content such as articles, blogs and announcements to your feed on a regular basis so that the people in your network become more aware of you. When you post to a discussion group, ask a provocative question that will engage your audience.
  4. Service: If your goal is to use your LinkedIn connections to add value to your clients, make sure you are connected to your clients. Ask them regularly about their problems so you can marry content and connections to their needs. This is a good way to let them know that you are focused on their problems.

Chances are you want to get something out of LinkedIn (besides spam), so decide on your intended outcome and start linking accordingly.

Source: The Ackert Advisory

econ-calendar-2014-1110

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

Don Parsons
Commerce Mortgage – NMLS 2105
450 Newport Center Drive Suite 350
Newport Beach, CA 92660
2130 Main Street Suite 260
Huntington Beach, CA 92648

Mortgage Market Weekly – Update Aug 25, 2014

In This Issue…

Last Week in Review: Key reports indicate that the housing recovery is back on track, while inflation remains tame.

Forecast for the Week: August ends on a busy note, with important reports on housing, inflation, economic growth and more.

View: Need some extra help at the office? Check out these six steps for hiring an intern.

Last Week in Review

“There is nothing as sweet as a comeback.” Anne Lamott. That’s certainly true when it comes to the housing sector, as recent reports indicate that the stall in the housing recovery seen late last year and in recent months may be over.

housing-starts_2014-08-22Housing Starts for July surged by nearly 16 percent to an annual rate of 1.093 million, above expectations and up from the 945,000 in June. Building Permits, a sign of future construction, also came in above expectations while Existing Home Sales for July increased by 2.4 percent from June.

In addition, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, which is a measure of builder confidence, rose two points to 55 in August from the 53 recorded in July. This was the third straight monthly gain and brings the index to its highest level since the 56 recorded in January. As a rule, 50 is the line between positive and negative sentiment. All in all, these reports are a good sign that the housing sector is coming back strong.

In other news, despite signs earlier this summer that inflation may be heating up, the latest reports show that inflation at the consumer level remains tame. This is good news for Bonds, as inflation reduces the value of fixed investments like Bonds. And since home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, tame inflation is typically good news for home loan rates as well.

The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near some of their best levels of the year and now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

The economic calendar is packed this week with key housing, inflation, manufacturing and economic growth data.

  • Housing news kicks off the week with July New Home Sales on Monday. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index follows on Tuesday, with Pending Home Sales for July being reported Thursday.
  • We’ll get a sense of how consumers are feeling with Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
  • Look for Durable Goods Orders (i.e. orders for items that last for an extended period of time) on Tuesday.
  • Important news is ahead Thursday with the second reading of second quarter Gross Domestic Product.
  • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will also be reported on Thursday. Claims continue to hover near the 300,000 mark.
  • Friday wraps up the week with Personal Income, Personal Spending and Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation. Regional manufacturing news via the Chicago PMI will also be reported.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds improved in the latter part of the week despite the positive housing data. Home loan rates remain near some of their best levels of the year and I’ll continue to monitor them closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Aug 22, 2014)

aug22-bonds-chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

6 Steps for Hiring an Intern

Hiring an intern is a win-win. The intern gains valuable skills and experience. You gain extra help on a temporary basis. Follow these six steps to hire an intern:

  1. Create a clear, meaningful job description. Do you need someone to focus on a special project or a social media coordinator to expand your social media outreach? Include the time commitment (usually up to 20 hours per week) and preferred work hours. Finally, outline the compensation (e.g., hourly wage or stipend).
  2. Recruit candidates. Turn to social media, your networks, and local colleges and universities. Provide the job description for reference.
  3. Prepare a workspace. Your intern will need a computer and a comfortable space. A phone may be necessary if the intern is calling contacts on your behalf.
  4. Plan for mentoring and supervision. Your intern will be learning everything from job responsibilities, to appropriate dress code, to performance expectations, and office protocol. Plan for guidance every step of the way.
  5. Give specific feedback. Concrete praise encourages a repeat performance. Concrete constructive feedback allows for corrective action. If you work with a college, you may have additional requirements of reporting to an internship coordinator or having a site visit.
  6. Offer to be a reference. Internships aren’t expected to lead directly to a job with the host company. Offer to be a reference and speak about your interns’ job responsibilities and strengths with their prospective employers.

As always, please feel free to pass these tips along to your team, colleagues and clients.

Sources: Forbes.com, inc.com, internprofits.com, sba.gov

Economic Calendar for the Week of August 25 – August 29

economic-chart-aug22

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

Don Parsons
Commerce Mortgage – NMLS 2105
450 Newport Center Drive Suite 350
Newport Beach, CA 92660
2130 Main Street Suite 260
Huntington Beach, CA 92648

Mortgage Market Weekly – Update Apr 7, 2014

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: The Jobs Report for March was released, along with important housing news.

Forecast for the Week: Look for the minutes from March’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, plus news on wholesale inflation and consumer sentiment.

View: This simple tip can make a big difference in client meetings.

[Read more…]

Mortgage Market Weekly Update – July 22, 2013

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: Key inflation and housing data was released, plus Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made some important remarks.

Forecast for the Week: Look for more key housing data, as well as Jobless Claims and Consumer Sentiment.

View: Add hours to your day with these great tips.

Last Week in Review

“Be willing to make decisions.” General George Patton. And that’s exactly what the Fed must be willing to do when it comes to their Bond purchase program known as Quantitative Easing (QE). Read on to find out what this could mean for home loan rates.

cpi_jan-jun2013Remember that the Fed has been purchasing $85 billion a month in Bonds to help lower unemployment and stimulate the housing market and the economy overall. Last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke noted that these purchases are by no means on a preset course and that Bond buying could be reduced at faster pace, a slower pace, or even increased for a time, depending on outlook. Bernanke also mentioned the word deflation last week for the first time in recent memory, and this could pave the way for QE to last into 2014.

The bottom line is that the Fed’s decision on QE will be data dependent. If inflation starts to rise and economic reports continue to be strong, the Fed could consider tapering its Bond purchases sooner rather than later. Whether this will lead to higher home loan rates–and how much higher–remains to be seen.

Speaking of key data points released last week, the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.5 percent from May to June due to rising prices in gasoline, food, clothing, medical costs and housing. This number was above expectations and the second highest reading this year. It is important to note that the year-over-year Core CPI (the reading that strips out volatile food and energy prices) ticked down a notch, which is likely why the Fed continues to say that inflation remains tame.

Over in the housing market, Housing Starts declined by nearly 10 percent in June from May to 836,000. This was below expectations and the lowest level since August 2012. The drop was attributed towards a big decrease in apartments. Building Permits, a sign of future construction, also fell by 7.7 percent, below expectations.

Meanwhile, Retail Sales in June declined to 0.4 percent from 0.5 percent in May. It’s important to note that Retail Sales make up 30 percent of consumer spending. The latest Jobs Report showed a lot of part-time jobs were created and confirmed that wages for most people have not grown at all. Without wage growth, we should not expect any robust Retail Sales or pickup in economic activity. This is another data point the Fed will be watching as it makes decisions regarding QE.

The bottom line is that now remains a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance, as home loan rates remain attractive compared to historical levels. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

Several key housing reports will be released this week.

  • Existing Home Sales data kicks off the week on Monday and New Home Sales will be released on Wednesday. The reports come after last week’s big drop in Housing Starts.
  • As usual, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported Thursday. Last week’s claims fell by 24,000 to 334,000, but the decline was due in part to factories undergoing their usual summer shutdown for a few weeks.
  • Look for the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates attempted to rally last week. I’ll continue to monitor their movement closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jul 19, 2013)

economic-calendar2013-07-22

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Power Productivity
9 Ways to Add 5 Hours to Your Day

Never wait alone. Checkups, oil changes, long lines and hold times –  all of these contribute to significant chunks of idle time. Rather than catching up on the latest celebrity gossip, bring something to work on. (30 minutes)

One-touch rule. Don’t get back to it later–if a voicemail, email, or piece of paper takes one minute or less to handle, do it and move on. (20 minutes)

News fast. Avoid watching or listening to news first thing in the morning – it’s more important to build a positive mood as you prepare for your day. (30 minutes)

News faster. Get your news sources, blogs, and favorite daily content fed to a single location instead of clicking around willy-nilly. Bloglines is one resource. (20 minutes)

Write everything down. How many times have you gone to the grocery store with the list in your head, and still forgotten something? Write short lists on a sticky note, or simply text yourself. Same goes for the office: carrying a to-do list in your head is not just a recipe for forgetting all you have to do, it’s a stress generator. (30 minutes)

Free your hands. Holding a phone in the crook of your neck limits your ability to do much else. Handle calls while cooking, cleaning, and driving with a headset. (30 minutes)

Call them all. Instead of making three or four calls to different people on the same action item, make a conference call. FreeConfereneCall.com is both free and reliable–and even gives you your own line. (20 minutes)

Techno Freeze. Identify your most productive time during the day then turn off tech that distracts you. Setting aside email and phone for that period can easily double or triple your productivity. Turn off your TV early and save an average of 2.6 hours a day–11 days a year–according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (90 minutes)

Waffle check. Every minute you spend deciding what to do, buy, or wear is time you could use elsewhere. Knowing how much your time is worth per hour can help you avoid indecision. For example, “shopping around” for two hours to save $10 on shipping only makes sense if your time is worth $4 an hour. (30 minutes)

econ-calendar-20130722

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:

Don Parsons
20250 Acacia Street, Suite 120
Newport Beach, CA 92660

Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.