Mortgage Market Weekly – Update Feb 23, 2015

In This Issue…

Last Week in Review: Recent housing reports were disappointing, while inflation remains low.

Forecast for the Week: February ends on a busy note, with key reports on housing, consumer attitudes, U.S. economic growth and inflation.

View: Protect yourself from identity theft with these important tips.

Last Week in Review

“I knew the record would stand until it was broken.” Yogi Berra. Record low temperatures have hit much of the nation, but that’s not the only chill in the air. [Read more…]

Mortgage Market Weekly – Update Dec 22, 2014

In This Issue…

Last Week in Review: While lower oil prices are giving people reason to cheer, there was some disappointing news in the housing sector.

Forecast for the Week: A full slate of economic reports will be released ahead of the Christmas holiday.

View: Saying “no” can be easy with these five tips.

Last Week in Review

“You make me wanna (Shout!)” These days, many people are shouting for joy as gas prices continue to plunge. But was the rest of the week’s news cause to celebrate? Read on for details.

consumer-price-index_2014-12-19Falling gas prices were definitely a key factor leading consumer prices lower in November, as the Consumer Price Index fell by 0.3 percent. The inflation-reading gauge posted its largest monthly decline in six years. Low inflation is good news for Bonds, as inflation reduces the value of fixed investments like Bonds. This means low inflation is also good news for home loan rates, which are tied to Mortgage Bonds.

Over in the housing sector, November Housing Starts fell by 1.6 percent from October to an annual rate of 1.028 million units. Single-family starts fell 5.4 percent, while the volatile multi-family segment rose by 6.7 percent. Building Permits in November also declined. Despite these decreases, the housing sector has been improving overall. In addition, the recent strong Jobs Report for November is a good sign for economic growth next year—and that should help the housing sector continue its otherwise improving trend.

Also of significance: The Fed held its last Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2014, and it noted that it will keep the Fed Funds Rate (the rate banks use to lend money to each other overnight) low until it feels that the economy can function normally with higher rates. This led to a rally in Stocks, while Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates remain near 18-month bests.

The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near some of their best levels of the year, and now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

The first half of the week will be busy, with key reports on housing, inflation and economic growth.

  • In the housing sector, Existing Home Sales for November will be released on Monday. November New Home Sales follow on Tuesday.
  • The final reading on third quarter Gross Domestic Product will be closely watched when the numbers are delivered on Tuesday.
  • Tuesday also brings several more key reports, including the Consumer Sentiment Index, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income, Personal Spending and Personal Consumption Expenditures (the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation).
  • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Wednesday instead of Thursday due to the Christmas holiday.

The Stock markets will close early at 1:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday, December 24, while the Bond markets will be closing at 2:00 p.m. EST. All markets will be closed on Thursday, December 25 in observance of Christmas. On Friday, December 26 there will be normal market hours.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds remain near 18-month highs, meaning home loan rates are still hovering near historic lows.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Dec 19, 2014)

mortgage-bonds_2014-12-19

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

5 Ways to Say No

The holidays aren’t the only time of year people over-commit themselves and being able to say no isn’t always easy. But there are ways to say no that make all the difference, and can help you preserve both your sanity and your relationships.

Christine Carter, Ph.D., sociologist, happiness expert at UC Berkeley’s Greater Good Science Center, and author of “The Sweet Spot: How to Find Your Groove at Home and Work” (coming January 2015) offers five effective ways to say no:

  1. Vague but effective: “Thank you for asking, but that isn’t going to work out for me.”
  2. Ask me later: “I want to do that, but I’m not available until April. Will you ask me gain then?”
  3. Keep trying: “None of those dates work for me, but I would love to see you. Send me some more dates.”
  4. Try me last minute: “I can’t put anything else on my calendar this month, but I’d love to do that with you sometime. Will you call me right before you go again?”
  5. Gratitude: “Thank you so much for your enthusiasm and support! I’m sorry I’m not able to help you at this time.”

If you’d like to find out even more effective ways you can say no, read Carter’s full article 21 Ways to “Give Good No.”

Please feel free to pass these great tips along to your team, clients and colleagues!

Source: Greater Good Science Center

econ-calendar=2015-02-17_16-19-12

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: don@donparsons.com

If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:

Don Parsons
Commerce Mortgage – NMLS 2105
450 Newport Center Drive Suite 350
Newport Beach, CA 92660
2130 Main Street Suite 260
Huntington Beach, CA 92648

Mortgage Market Weekly – Update Nov 24, 2014

In This Issue…

Last Week in Review: The housing sector continues to improve, as home loan rates remain near annual lows.

Forecast for the Week: Look for news on housing, inflation, consumer confidence and the state of our economy—all ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

View: Get more from your lunch hour with these great tips.

Last Week in Review

Time is on our side. Time continues to be on the side of potential homebuyers, as home loan rates remain near 18-month lows. But could a hint of inflation be creeping into our economy – and if so, could higher home loan rates be on the horizon? [Read more…]

Mortgage Market Weekly – Update Aug 25, 2014

In This Issue…

Last Week in Review: Key reports indicate that the housing recovery is back on track, while inflation remains tame.

Forecast for the Week: August ends on a busy note, with important reports on housing, inflation, economic growth and more.

View: Need some extra help at the office? Check out these six steps for hiring an intern.

Last Week in Review

“There is nothing as sweet as a comeback.” Anne Lamott. That’s certainly true when it comes to the housing sector, as recent reports indicate that the stall in the housing recovery seen late last year and in recent months may be over.

housing-starts_2014-08-22Housing Starts for July surged by nearly 16 percent to an annual rate of 1.093 million, above expectations and up from the 945,000 in June. Building Permits, a sign of future construction, also came in above expectations while Existing Home Sales for July increased by 2.4 percent from June.

In addition, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, which is a measure of builder confidence, rose two points to 55 in August from the 53 recorded in July. This was the third straight monthly gain and brings the index to its highest level since the 56 recorded in January. As a rule, 50 is the line between positive and negative sentiment. All in all, these reports are a good sign that the housing sector is coming back strong.

In other news, despite signs earlier this summer that inflation may be heating up, the latest reports show that inflation at the consumer level remains tame. This is good news for Bonds, as inflation reduces the value of fixed investments like Bonds. And since home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, tame inflation is typically good news for home loan rates as well.

The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near some of their best levels of the year and now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

The economic calendar is packed this week with key housing, inflation, manufacturing and economic growth data.

  • Housing news kicks off the week with July New Home Sales on Monday. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index follows on Tuesday, with Pending Home Sales for July being reported Thursday.
  • We’ll get a sense of how consumers are feeling with Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
  • Look for Durable Goods Orders (i.e. orders for items that last for an extended period of time) on Tuesday.
  • Important news is ahead Thursday with the second reading of second quarter Gross Domestic Product.
  • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will also be reported on Thursday. Claims continue to hover near the 300,000 mark.
  • Friday wraps up the week with Personal Income, Personal Spending and Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation. Regional manufacturing news via the Chicago PMI will also be reported.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds improved in the latter part of the week despite the positive housing data. Home loan rates remain near some of their best levels of the year and I’ll continue to monitor them closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Aug 22, 2014)

aug22-bonds-chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

6 Steps for Hiring an Intern

Hiring an intern is a win-win. The intern gains valuable skills and experience. You gain extra help on a temporary basis. Follow these six steps to hire an intern:

  1. Create a clear, meaningful job description. Do you need someone to focus on a special project or a social media coordinator to expand your social media outreach? Include the time commitment (usually up to 20 hours per week) and preferred work hours. Finally, outline the compensation (e.g., hourly wage or stipend).
  2. Recruit candidates. Turn to social media, your networks, and local colleges and universities. Provide the job description for reference.
  3. Prepare a workspace. Your intern will need a computer and a comfortable space. A phone may be necessary if the intern is calling contacts on your behalf.
  4. Plan for mentoring and supervision. Your intern will be learning everything from job responsibilities, to appropriate dress code, to performance expectations, and office protocol. Plan for guidance every step of the way.
  5. Give specific feedback. Concrete praise encourages a repeat performance. Concrete constructive feedback allows for corrective action. If you work with a college, you may have additional requirements of reporting to an internship coordinator or having a site visit.
  6. Offer to be a reference. Internships aren’t expected to lead directly to a job with the host company. Offer to be a reference and speak about your interns’ job responsibilities and strengths with their prospective employers.

As always, please feel free to pass these tips along to your team, colleagues and clients.

Sources: Forbes.com, inc.com, internprofits.com, sba.gov

Economic Calendar for the Week of August 25 – August 29

economic-chart-aug22

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

Don Parsons
Commerce Mortgage – NMLS 2105
450 Newport Center Drive Suite 350
Newport Beach, CA 92660
2130 Main Street Suite 260
Huntington Beach, CA 92648

Mortgage Market Weekly – Update July 21, 2014

In This Issue…

Last Week in Review: Housing numbers and retails sales were disappointing, wholesale inflation is heating up, and tensions overseas had a big impact on the markets.

Forecast for the Week: Key housing and inflation reports will be released, while earnings season and tensions overseas could impact the markets.

View: Check out these six leadership classics that are worth reading (or re-reading) and that can have a big impact on your success.

Last Week in Review

Some like it hot. That sentiment does not apply to the Bond markets, when it comes to hotter than jul21-retail-salesexpected inflation. Learn what sectors of the economy are heating up, which ones are cooling off—and how the markets and rates responded.

Housing Starts were gloomy in June, as they declined by 9.3 percent from May to an annual rate of 893,000, well below the 1.020 million expected. This was the slowest pace in nine months, led by a drop in single-family homes and apartments. Building Permits, a sign of future construction, also fell by 4.2 percent to an annual rate of 963,000, coming in below expectations. There was a bright spot, as the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index came in at 53. Readings above 50 indicate that builders see conditions as good, and this was the first reading above 50 this year. Overall, the housing sector has shown signs of recovery, but activity has leveled off and some readings this year continue to be disappointing.

Retail Sales for June also cooled, coming in at the lowest level since the near -1.0 percent recorded in January. Retail Sales account for about one-third of consumer spending, and they are one of the main drivers of U.S. economic activity, making this report an important one to monitor. On a bright side, the report showed that consumers continue to spend at a better than modest pace.

Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index for June showed that inflation at the wholesale level came in hotter than expected. Remember that inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds, as it reduces the value of fixed investments like Bonds. And since home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, when inflation heats up, Bonds and home loan rates typically worsen. The upcoming Consumer Price Index for June will be closely watched for any signs that inflation is heating up at the consumer level.

What does this mean for home loan rates? If inflation continues to heat up, it could have a negative impact on Bonds and home loan rates, as we saw early last week. However, the continued tensions in the Ukraine and the Middle East could keep investors in the safe haven of the Bond markets, which would help home loan rates in the process. And earnings season is sure to have an impact—if numbers disappoint, Bonds and home loan rates could benefit.

The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near some of their best levels of the year and now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

Key housing and inflation reports dominate the headlines. Plus, earnings season is in full bloom.

  • Look for the closely-watched Consumer Price Index for June on Tuesday.
  • In housing news, Existing Home Sales for June will also be released on Tuesday, followed by June’s New Home Sales on Thursday.
  • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported, as usual, on Thursday. Claims continue to hover near the 300,000 level.
  • Ending the week, Durable Goods Orders for June will be delivered Friday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds worsened in the beginning of last week, but improved after tensions overseas caused a flight-to-safety into the Bond markets. Home loan rates remain near some of their best levels of the year and I will continue to monitor them closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jul 18, 2014)

middle-image_2014-06-20

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Your Business Bookshelf
6 Leadership Classics Worth Reading (Or Re-Reading)

Here are six leadership classics worth reading (or re-reading) to help maximize your success:

How To Win Friends and Influence People. Dale Carnegie’s classic is a one-to-one communication manual that covers techniques for handling people, making people like you, winning people over to your way of thinking, and even helping them change (for the better!) without arousing resentment.

Wooden on Leadership: How to Create a Winning Organization. The legendary UCLA basketball coach John Wooden knows how to create winning organizations. In this book, he teaches you how to do the same through his Pyramid of Success, stressing the importance of preparation, and perhaps more importantly, the processes.

Delivering Happiness: A Path to Profits, Passion, and Purpose. Zappos CEO Tony Hsieh shares why creating an office culture that values happiness first can produce amazing results, not only in customer satisfaction, but also in employee motivation and loyalty—and your own happiness as a result.

The One Minute Manager. Ken Blanchard and Spencer Johnson’s book has sold over 13 million copies worldwide, and focuses on three techniques: clarifying the goals of your organization, giving praise to your team, and appropriately reprimanding when things go wrong… all in one minute each!

The Five Dysfunctions of a Team. This leadership “fable” by multiple-best-selling author and business consultant Patrick Lencioni reveals what’s at the heart of why teams fail—regardless of the dedication of key members—and the timeless method he uses to fix the problem.

Good to Great. Jim Collins offers the results of an exhaustive five-year study of all Fortune 500 companies. He identifies why only 11 of those companies achieved excellent long-term results, while the rest floundered under poor leadership—and how you can avoid making the same mistakes in your team.

As always, please feel free to pass these great reads along to your team, colleagues and clients!

Economic Calendar for the Week of July 21 – July 25

econ-calendar-201407

 

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

Don Parsons
Commerce Mortgage:  NMLS 2105
450 Newport Center Drive Suite 350
Newport Beach, CA 92660
2130 Main Street Suite 260
Huntington Beach, CA 92648

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