Mortgage Market Weekly – Update Feb 23, 2015

In This Issue…

Last Week in Review: Recent housing reports were disappointing, while inflation remains low.

Forecast for the Week: February ends on a busy note, with key reports on housing, consumer attitudes, U.S. economic growth and inflation.

View: Protect yourself from identity theft with these important tips.

Last Week in Review

“I knew the record would stand until it was broken.” Yogi Berra. Record low temperatures have hit much of the nation, but that’s not the only chill in the air. [Read more…]

Mortgage Market Weekly – Update Jan 26, 2015

In This Issue…
Last Week in Review: Housing news was plentiful, while market volatility was rampant.Forecast for the Week: Look for news on housing, consumer attitudes, and economic growth. Plus, the Fed meets!

View: These six tips will not only make you a better listener, they’ll also help improve your business relationships.

Last Week in Review

“There’s no place like home.” News from the housing sector was front and center, and with rates remaining near historic lows, great opportunities remain for those looking to purchase or refinance. Housing Starts sizzled in December, rising 4.4 percent from November to 1.089 million annualized units, coming in above expectations. The rise in Housing Starts was the strongest annual pace in seven years and it was led by a jump in starts for single-family homes, which reached their highest level since early 2008.

Building Permits, a sign of future construction, did decrease by nearly 2 percent in December but still came in at a strong 1.03 million. Both Building Permits and Housing Starts figures were also revised higher in November.

Also of note, the January National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index was 57. Readings above 50 are considered positive sentiments about market conditions. Meanwhile, December Existing Home Sales rose from November. However, sales in 2014 were lower compared to 2013 due to a sluggish start in the beginning of the year. Overall, the housing sector continues to improve.

In news overseas, the European Central Bank has announced that it will enact a massive Quantitative Easing, or QE, style of Bond purchases to fight off deflation and promote economic growth in the region. The news has caused extreme volatility in U.S. markets. However, Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates (which are tied to Mortgage Bonds) remain near historic best levels.

The bottom line is that now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

Economic data is plentiful this week, while the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year will take place.

  • Look for several key housing reports, including New Home Sales and the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday and Pending Home Sales on Thursday.
  • Also on Tuesday, Durable Goods Orders for December will be released.
  • We’ll get a sense of how consumers are feeling with Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
  • As usual, Thursday brings Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
  • On Friday, look for the first reading on Q4 2014 Gross Domestic Product, the Employment Cost Index, and manufacturing news via the Chicago PMI.

In addition, the FOMC meeting kicks off on Tuesday and will end Wednesday with the 2:00 p.m. EST release of the Fed’s monetary policy statement. This always has the potential to be a market mover—be sure to stay tuned!

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, the Mortgage Bond market has been volatile of late. Home loan rates are still hovering near record lows, making now a great opportunity for anyone looking to purchase or refinance.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 23, 2015)
mtg-bonds_2015-01-26

The Mortgage Market Guide View

Are You Listening?Active listening is an important part of business relationships. It demonstrates respect to everyone in a conversation. Plus, it helps ensure you are receiving complete details and clarity of the message.

Whether on the phone or in person, these six strategies for active listening will keep you tuned in to the conversation.

1. Power down. Don’t get distracted by technology. Email pop ups and cell phone notifications disrupt the conversation and distract both you and the speaker. Put your phone on silent, close your laptop or turn your desktop monitor away from you. Your messages will be there when your conversation is complete.

2. Sit up. How you physically carry yourself carries through into your energy and attentiveness. Sit up straight and give the speaker your full attention. If you are on the phone, you can stand up to be alert and attentive.

3. Don’t interrupt. Hold your clarifying questions until the speaker is done. Jot your questions down, so you don’t forget. They may get answered along the way.

4. Cue you are listening. Simple verbal cues like “uh-huh” and “okay” let the speaker know you are still present in the conversation. If you are in person, an occasional nod goes hand in hand with making eye contact.

5. Summarize key points. When the speaker is done, summarize his or her key points to illustrate you were listening. Start with, “What I’m hearing you say is…” or, “If I’m understanding you correctly….”

6. Clarify. Ask questions that provide additional details about a situation. You can also clarify what actions or outcomes the speaker anticipated by having the conversation with you.

Please feel free to pass these great tips along to your team, clients and colleagues!

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 26 – January 30

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Tue. January 27
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Dec
NA
Â
-0.9%
Moderate
Tue. January 27
09:00
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Nov
NA
Â
4.5%
Moderate
Tue. January 27
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Jan
NA
Â
92.6
Moderate
Tue. January 27
10:00
New Home Sales
Dec
NA
Â
438K
Moderate
Wed. January 28
02:00
FOMC Meeting
Jan
NA
Â
0.25%
HIGH
Thu. January 29
10:00
Pending Home Sales
Dec
NA
Â
0.8%
Moderate
Thu. January 29
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
1/24
NA
Â
NA
Moderate
Fri. January 30
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q4
NA
Â
5.0%
Moderate
Fri. January 30
08:30
GDP Chain Deflator
Q4
NA
Â
1.4%
Moderate
Fri. January 30
08:30
Employment Cost Index (ECI)
Q4
NA
Â
0.7%
HIGH
Fri. January 30
09:45
Chicago PMI
Jan
NA
Â
58.3
HIGH
Fri. January 30
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Jan
NA
Â
98.2
Moderate
 Â
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.
As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.
Don Parsons
Commerce Mortgage – NMLS 2105
450 Newport Center Drive Suite 350
Newport Beach, CA 92660
2130 Main Street Suite 260
Huntington Beach, CA 92648

 

Mortgage Market Weekly – Update Jan 19, 2015

In This Issue…

Last Week in Review: Retail sales plummeted, inflation remains tame, and home loan rates are hovering near record lows.Forecast for the Week: It’s a holiday-shortened week, with housing reports dominating the headlines.View: These five podcasts are great tools to help you succeed this year.
Last Week in Review 
Shop or drop. Fewer people than expected opened their wallets in December, as the latest Retail Sales numbers declined. But with home loan rates hovering near historic lows, not all of last week’s headlines were disappointing. Retail Sales plunged by 0.9 percent in December, the biggest decline in nearly a year as lower gas prices didn’t have the desired impact on consumer spending during the busy shopping season. November’s numbers were also revised lower. This news was a bit of a surprise, and not the best sign for our overall economic recovery. But one number doesn’t make a trend, so this will be an important report to watch in the coming months.On the inflation front, inflation at the wholesale level remained tamed in December while the Consumer Price Index showed its smallest gain in five years, mainly due to plunging oil prices. We are beginning to see disinflationary pressures, which is a slower rate of inflation over a shorter time period. While low inflation is Bond-friendly news (and also good for home loan rates, since they are tied to Mortgage Bonds), outright deflation is a sustained fall in prices. That is something we do not want to see because deflation also brings increased unemployment. Inflation is another key item to monitor as we move ahead into 2015.

Also of note, the World Bank cut its forecast for global growth, warning that the world economy remains overly reliant on the “single engine” of the U.S. recovery. If negative news from overseas continues, we could see safe haven trading into our Bond market, helping Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates in the process.

The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near historic lows, and now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

[Read more…]

Mortgage Market Weekly – Update Nov 17, 2014

In This Issue…

Last Week in Review: The Bond markets were closed Tuesday in honor of Veterans Day, while the rest of the week was quiet with only a handful of economic reports on the calendar.

Forecast for the Week: The Fed minutes could cause volatility. Plus, key housing reports, and is inflation still tame?

View: Check out these five tips that can help yield more productive and meaningful work relationships.

[Read more…]

Mortgage Market Weekly – Update Aug 25, 2014

In This Issue…

Last Week in Review: Key reports indicate that the housing recovery is back on track, while inflation remains tame.

Forecast for the Week: August ends on a busy note, with important reports on housing, inflation, economic growth and more.

View: Need some extra help at the office? Check out these six steps for hiring an intern.

Last Week in Review

“There is nothing as sweet as a comeback.” Anne Lamott. That’s certainly true when it comes to the housing sector, as recent reports indicate that the stall in the housing recovery seen late last year and in recent months may be over.

housing-starts_2014-08-22Housing Starts for July surged by nearly 16 percent to an annual rate of 1.093 million, above expectations and up from the 945,000 in June. Building Permits, a sign of future construction, also came in above expectations while Existing Home Sales for July increased by 2.4 percent from June.

In addition, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, which is a measure of builder confidence, rose two points to 55 in August from the 53 recorded in July. This was the third straight monthly gain and brings the index to its highest level since the 56 recorded in January. As a rule, 50 is the line between positive and negative sentiment. All in all, these reports are a good sign that the housing sector is coming back strong.

In other news, despite signs earlier this summer that inflation may be heating up, the latest reports show that inflation at the consumer level remains tame. This is good news for Bonds, as inflation reduces the value of fixed investments like Bonds. And since home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, tame inflation is typically good news for home loan rates as well.

The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near some of their best levels of the year and now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

The economic calendar is packed this week with key housing, inflation, manufacturing and economic growth data.

  • Housing news kicks off the week with July New Home Sales on Monday. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index follows on Tuesday, with Pending Home Sales for July being reported Thursday.
  • We’ll get a sense of how consumers are feeling with Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
  • Look for Durable Goods Orders (i.e. orders for items that last for an extended period of time) on Tuesday.
  • Important news is ahead Thursday with the second reading of second quarter Gross Domestic Product.
  • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will also be reported on Thursday. Claims continue to hover near the 300,000 mark.
  • Friday wraps up the week with Personal Income, Personal Spending and Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation. Regional manufacturing news via the Chicago PMI will also be reported.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds improved in the latter part of the week despite the positive housing data. Home loan rates remain near some of their best levels of the year and I’ll continue to monitor them closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Aug 22, 2014)

aug22-bonds-chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

6 Steps for Hiring an Intern

Hiring an intern is a win-win. The intern gains valuable skills and experience. You gain extra help on a temporary basis. Follow these six steps to hire an intern:

  1. Create a clear, meaningful job description. Do you need someone to focus on a special project or a social media coordinator to expand your social media outreach? Include the time commitment (usually up to 20 hours per week) and preferred work hours. Finally, outline the compensation (e.g., hourly wage or stipend).
  2. Recruit candidates. Turn to social media, your networks, and local colleges and universities. Provide the job description for reference.
  3. Prepare a workspace. Your intern will need a computer and a comfortable space. A phone may be necessary if the intern is calling contacts on your behalf.
  4. Plan for mentoring and supervision. Your intern will be learning everything from job responsibilities, to appropriate dress code, to performance expectations, and office protocol. Plan for guidance every step of the way.
  5. Give specific feedback. Concrete praise encourages a repeat performance. Concrete constructive feedback allows for corrective action. If you work with a college, you may have additional requirements of reporting to an internship coordinator or having a site visit.
  6. Offer to be a reference. Internships aren’t expected to lead directly to a job with the host company. Offer to be a reference and speak about your interns’ job responsibilities and strengths with their prospective employers.

As always, please feel free to pass these tips along to your team, colleagues and clients.

Sources: Forbes.com, inc.com, internprofits.com, sba.gov

Economic Calendar for the Week of August 25 – August 29

economic-chart-aug22

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

Don Parsons
Commerce Mortgage – NMLS 2105
450 Newport Center Drive Suite 350
Newport Beach, CA 92660
2130 Main Street Suite 260
Huntington Beach, CA 92648

Mortgage Market Weekly – Update June 20, 2014

In This Issue…

Last Week in Review: Housing is cooling, inflation is warming and the Fed announced more tapering.

Forecast for the Week: Important housing, inflation and consumer confidence reports are ahead. Plus, we’ll get news on the state of our economy with the final reading for first quarter Gross Domestic Product.

View: Good communication skills are critical to succeeding in business. Mastering the art of telling a good story is a key component. [Read more…]

Mortgage Market Weekly – Update June 16, 2014

In This Issue…

Last Week in Review: Retail Sales for May came in less than expected, while important housing news was released.

Forecast for the Week: Key housing, inflation and manufacturing reports are ahead, and the Fed meets.

View: If you have any clients or colleagues who may use Craigslist for an upcoming move, be sure to let them know about a new scam that’s been reported. [Read more…]

Mortgage Market Weekly Update – July 22, 2013

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: Key inflation and housing data was released, plus Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made some important remarks.

Forecast for the Week: Look for more key housing data, as well as Jobless Claims and Consumer Sentiment.

View: Add hours to your day with these great tips.

Last Week in Review

“Be willing to make decisions.” General George Patton. And that’s exactly what the Fed must be willing to do when it comes to their Bond purchase program known as Quantitative Easing (QE). Read on to find out what this could mean for home loan rates.

cpi_jan-jun2013Remember that the Fed has been purchasing $85 billion a month in Bonds to help lower unemployment and stimulate the housing market and the economy overall. Last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke noted that these purchases are by no means on a preset course and that Bond buying could be reduced at faster pace, a slower pace, or even increased for a time, depending on outlook. Bernanke also mentioned the word deflation last week for the first time in recent memory, and this could pave the way for QE to last into 2014.

The bottom line is that the Fed’s decision on QE will be data dependent. If inflation starts to rise and economic reports continue to be strong, the Fed could consider tapering its Bond purchases sooner rather than later. Whether this will lead to higher home loan rates–and how much higher–remains to be seen.

Speaking of key data points released last week, the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.5 percent from May to June due to rising prices in gasoline, food, clothing, medical costs and housing. This number was above expectations and the second highest reading this year. It is important to note that the year-over-year Core CPI (the reading that strips out volatile food and energy prices) ticked down a notch, which is likely why the Fed continues to say that inflation remains tame.

Over in the housing market, Housing Starts declined by nearly 10 percent in June from May to 836,000. This was below expectations and the lowest level since August 2012. The drop was attributed towards a big decrease in apartments. Building Permits, a sign of future construction, also fell by 7.7 percent, below expectations.

Meanwhile, Retail Sales in June declined to 0.4 percent from 0.5 percent in May. It’s important to note that Retail Sales make up 30 percent of consumer spending. The latest Jobs Report showed a lot of part-time jobs were created and confirmed that wages for most people have not grown at all. Without wage growth, we should not expect any robust Retail Sales or pickup in economic activity. This is another data point the Fed will be watching as it makes decisions regarding QE.

The bottom line is that now remains a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance, as home loan rates remain attractive compared to historical levels. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

Several key housing reports will be released this week.

  • Existing Home Sales data kicks off the week on Monday and New Home Sales will be released on Wednesday. The reports come after last week’s big drop in Housing Starts.
  • As usual, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported Thursday. Last week’s claims fell by 24,000 to 334,000, but the decline was due in part to factories undergoing their usual summer shutdown for a few weeks.
  • Look for the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates attempted to rally last week. I’ll continue to monitor their movement closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jul 19, 2013)

economic-calendar2013-07-22

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Power Productivity
9 Ways to Add 5 Hours to Your Day

Never wait alone. Checkups, oil changes, long lines and hold times –  all of these contribute to significant chunks of idle time. Rather than catching up on the latest celebrity gossip, bring something to work on. (30 minutes)

One-touch rule. Don’t get back to it later–if a voicemail, email, or piece of paper takes one minute or less to handle, do it and move on. (20 minutes)

News fast. Avoid watching or listening to news first thing in the morning – it’s more important to build a positive mood as you prepare for your day. (30 minutes)

News faster. Get your news sources, blogs, and favorite daily content fed to a single location instead of clicking around willy-nilly. Bloglines is one resource. (20 minutes)

Write everything down. How many times have you gone to the grocery store with the list in your head, and still forgotten something? Write short lists on a sticky note, or simply text yourself. Same goes for the office: carrying a to-do list in your head is not just a recipe for forgetting all you have to do, it’s a stress generator. (30 minutes)

Free your hands. Holding a phone in the crook of your neck limits your ability to do much else. Handle calls while cooking, cleaning, and driving with a headset. (30 minutes)

Call them all. Instead of making three or four calls to different people on the same action item, make a conference call. FreeConfereneCall.com is both free and reliable–and even gives you your own line. (20 minutes)

Techno Freeze. Identify your most productive time during the day then turn off tech that distracts you. Setting aside email and phone for that period can easily double or triple your productivity. Turn off your TV early and save an average of 2.6 hours a day–11 days a year–according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (90 minutes)

Waffle check. Every minute you spend deciding what to do, buy, or wear is time you could use elsewhere. Knowing how much your time is worth per hour can help you avoid indecision. For example, “shopping around” for two hours to save $10 on shipping only makes sense if your time is worth $4 an hour. (30 minutes)

econ-calendar-20130722

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:

Don Parsons
20250 Acacia Street, Suite 120
Newport Beach, CA 92660

Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

Mortgage Market Weekly Update – July 15, 2013

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: The Fed meeting minutes were released, and wholesale inflation is heating up.

Forecast for the Week: Look for important inflation, housing and manufacturing news. Plus, earnings season continues.

View: More and more people are listening to podcasts. Find out how they can help your business with the easy tips below.

Last Week in Review

“And I kept on looking for a sign.” Climax Blues Band. The markets were certainly looking for a sign from the Fed meeting minutes that were released last week, regarding when the Fed may begin tapering its Bond purchase program known as Quantitative Easing. Read on to learn what the Fed revealed, and other key news from last week.

state-unemployment_2013-07-15The minutes from the Fed’s June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed that the Fed’s Bond purchases will be contingent on how the U.S. economy does. Some members said further labor market improvement is needed, while several said a reduction in purchases would soon be warranted.

In terms of the labor market, regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in May. Twenty-five states had unemployment rate decreases, seventeen states had increases, and eight states and the District of Columbia had no change. And while the Jobs Report for June looked strong on the surface, when you dig into the report a lot of the jobs created were for low-paying jobs and part-time help. In addition, for the 18-29 year age group, the Unemployment Rate is a staggering 16.1 percent.

[Read more…]

Mortgage Market Weekly Update – Jun 17, 2013

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: Volatility continued in the markets among some good economic news.

Forecast for the Week: All eyes will be on the upcoming Fed meeting. Plus key housing, inflation and manufacturing reports will be released.

View: Facebook can be a great tool for your business–unless you make the below mistakes.

Last Week in Review

“I don’t know where we’re going, but we’re on our way!” That quote from a Little Rascals episode can certainly apply to the markets of late, as uncertainty has Stocks and Bonds moving in various directions. Read on to learn what happened last week, and how home loan rates were impacted.

retail-sales-2013-06-17There was some good news for the labor sector as Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell in the latest week to 334,000. This was below expectations and the lowest level since early May. The 4-week moving average, which evens out any seasonal abnormalities, also fell. In addition, consumers opened their wallets in May as Retail Sales rose at the fastest pace in three months, led by demand for groceries, autos and building materials.

Over in housing news, RealtyTrac reported that foreclosures rose by 2 percent in May from April. However, it’s important to note that foreclosures have fallen 28 percent from May 2012. And there was some really good news for our economy: Standard & Poor’s, one of the big three credit-rating agencies, raised the credit outlook for the U.S. from negative to stable. [Read more…]